February 12, 2025 – A massive asteroid, measuring up to 300 feet across, is on NASA’s watchlist as its chances of colliding with Earth in 2032 continue to increase. While the space agency initially assessed the probability as low, recent calculations suggest a growing risk, fueling both scientific curiosity and public concern.
An Unsettling Discovery
NASA first detected the asteroid, officially named 2024 YR4, only weeks ago. Initial estimates placed the likelihood of an impact at 1.2%, but recent tracking has nearly doubled that figure to 2.3%—or roughly a 1 in 43 chance—that it could strike Earth on December 22, 2032.
NASA’s detection of asteroid 2024 YR4 has sparked growing concern within the scientific community, as its estimated impact probability has significantly increased in just a matter of weeks. Initially, when the asteroid was first identified, experts calculated a 1.2% chance of collision with Earth—a relatively small probability that was not considered an immediate threat. However, as NASA’s tracking efforts have continued, refined orbital calculations have revealed a 2.3% chance of impact, nearly doubling the initial estimate. This translates to a 1 in 43 possibility that the space rock could collide with Earth on December 22, 2032.
This development is particularly noteworthy as, at the time of 2024 YR4’s discovery, NASA had previously assured the public that no other known large asteroid posed an impact risk above 1%. The sudden rise in probability has led to increased scrutiny, with some experts warning that as further data is collected, the likelihood of impact could either decrease or continue to rise, making continuous observation critical.
Given the asteroid’s size—up to 300 feet across—an impact could cause significant localized devastation, though it is not expected to be an extinction-level event. Scientists are now closely analyzing the asteroid’s trajectory, velocity, and potential impact locations to determine the next course of action, including possible planetary defense measures.
NASA’s Ongoing Monitoring
The agency continues to monitor the asteroid’s orbit closely, hoping that additional data will refine impact predictions. NASA acknowledges that future calculations could rule out the threat entirely but also warns that the probability may continue to rise as more details emerge.
A NASA spokesperson noted, “Our priority is to track and assess any potential threat to Earth, and 2024 YR4 is now under close observation. While the chances remain low, we are preparing for all possible scenarios.”
What’s Next?
Scientists will continue studying the asteroid’s trajectory to determine whether mitigation strategies may be necessary. Options could include deflection missions similar to NASA’s DART experiment, which successfully altered an asteroid’s path in 2022.
For now, the world watches as astronomers work to better understand the movements of 2024 YR4. Whether it will ultimately pose a real danger remains uncertain—but its increasing probability of impact ensures that the asteroid will remain a topic of close scrutiny in the years ahead.
